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Author Topic: GFS changeover and new version  (Read 1414 times)

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Offline Tom Ehrensperger

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GFS changeover and new version
« on: June 11, 2019, 03:17:24 AM »
NCEP is scheduled to change over to the new GFS model (supposedly somewhat more accurate!) on June 12, at 12Z.  This change is more significant than most upgrades, partly because there are some changes to URL's, at least for the web based downloads.  Sam (Bohler) and I have been conferring on this and preparing for the changeover, and hopefully it will happen seamlessly on Wednesday.  However, our testing on the "parallel" data revealed a problem with reading the sea level barometric pressure data: the 0 hour data was fine, but erroneous values were appearing starting with hour 3.  This triggered an error, so we switched temporarily back to the old (still "official") data, so we could work on the problem.

We're actually working on that tonight, and are pretty confident we will have it fixed.  However, as a precaution, I have just posted new versions of WXSIM (2019, Build 1.2) and WXSIM-Lite (2.5), which sidestep the problem by coming up with substitute pressure values.  WXSIM's is very accurate, based on the 1000 mb height (which is being read fine), temperature, and station elevation, and should not compromise the forecast in any significant way.  WXSIM-Lite will simply default it to 1013 mb, BUT it's not really used in what WXSIM-Lite does (I was grabbing it mainly for possible future use), so that should be fine.  You shouldn't even see any evidence of these substitutions, except for a brielf message in WXSIM, if your running it manually.

Again, I expect this will not even be needed, but I wanted to get out ahead of any problems!

As for Chris McMahnon's GFS data source, I've communicated with him on this, and he's using an FTP source that he thinks will not be changed.  I do not know whether his script will encounter problems with that pressure value, but if it does, this WXSIM upgrade will take care of it anyway.

SO, please run www.wxsim.com/wxsimupg.exe, just in case!

Thanks, as always, for using my software! :)

Tom

Offline JEB_Tucson

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Re: GFS changeover and new version
« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2019, 04:43:22 PM »
Hello Tom

Thought I would load and run your new update prior to the NWS change.

I ran wxsimate, wxsimlite, wret and wxsim and found _no issues_. Also the forecast SLP pressures look reasonable.

Thanks
James B
Tucson AZ
DW4536
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 04:53:08 PM by JEB_Tucson »

Offline SteveFitz1

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Re: GFS changeover and new version
« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2019, 07:42:16 PM »
Tom,

All my scheduled runs have successfully completed since I installed your update early this AM. The results look normal.

Steve

Offline mikeym

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Re: GFS changeover and new version
« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2019, 11:46:32 PM »
Same here as the afternoon and early evening runs were good with the new updates.

 :D

MikeyM
http://mikeymsweather.com/

Another VERY Happy WD user
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Offline Tom Ehrensperger

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Re: GFS changeover and new version
« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2019, 12:20:15 AM »
Update: Sam found the problem and fixed it.  The problem was that NCEP is now putting two different accumulated precipitation fields in the data (the old one accumulated over the last 3 or 6 hours, and the new one since initialization, and BOTH are now in there), and they were labeled APCP(1) and APCP(2), and we'd been searching for the tag APCP.  This garbled up a couple of the variables.  In any case, it's fixed, and we're poised to switch over for the 12Z data tomorrow.

I don't know the details of Chris McMahon's script in this regard.  It may or may not be affected by this redundancy, but if it is, I think my precautionary move will at least prevent errors (though it's conceivable something else might be affected).  In any case, he will be home in a few days to address anything that might come up.  Meanwhile, the Bohler data should be sound.

Tom

Offline giantocr

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Re: GFS changeover and new version
« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2019, 06:43:38 AM »
@ Tom,

Yesterday, June 11, installed now June 12, 8:40 AM and after two runs today no problems here.

Kind regards,

Piet

https://www.meteosauwerd.nl
https://www.sauwerdmeteo.nl
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Offline Stegrie

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Re: GFS changeover and new version
« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2019, 10:49:49 AM »
Hi Tom,

It seems, that all works as it should <-----> without any Problems. :wink:

Stefan
Weather Station - Johanngeorgenstadt
Davis Vantage Pro 2 Plus - WXSIM,Blitzortung ,WD, 2 Soil Temp/Moist + Solar/Rad.
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Offline BeaumarisWX

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Re: GFS changeover and new version
« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2019, 12:34:47 PM »
Hi Tom,

Thank you as always for all you do.

All working here for many auto updates with new version, we will see what happens during auto run of 12Z data tomorrow.

Kind Regards Always,
Tony

Offline administrator

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Re: GFS changeover and new version
« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2019, 12:42:28 PM »
If I remember correctly my script extracts the APCP value so it might well be affected by the same problem. I don't remember seeing this change in the logs or if I did then the significance didn't sink in. I'm just about to leave on a business trip and won't get home until late tomorrow so if there's a problem I won't be able to look at it until Friday evening.
Chris
Weather Forum Administrator

Offline Tom Ehrensperger

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Re: GFS changeover and new version
« Reply #9 on: June 12, 2019, 08:08:10 PM »
Thanks, Chris, for checking the forum!  I think your script quit working with the changeover, because I'm still seeing 06Z as your current data, and 12Z has been out for a while.  I think Sam's script is all good now, though we did still have a problem with the APCP at 06Z (fixed as of 12Z).  Those two fields are defined differently, and they are easily confused!  I'll email you with what we found, to make it easier to fix when you get back.  Right now, though, Bohler is a working option, so there's no "emergency".  Have a great trip! ("great" for a business trip, anyway) :)

Tom

Offline Tom Ehrensperger

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Re: GFS changeover and new version
« Reply #10 on: June 12, 2019, 08:12:11 PM »
Update on GFS changeover.  Bohler should be working fine now, though I think 06Z of June 12 had bad precipitation data at some hours, due to us not fully understanding the changes they'd made.  That should be fixed now.  It appears that Chris McMahon's script may have stopped working after 06Z (though the data was still good at that point).  He's out of town until Friday, and should be able to fix it soon after that, but meanwhile, Bohler is working fine, for both WXSIMATE and WXSIM-Lite version of the data.

Thanks for your patience during all these changes!  I'm hoping NCEP will just leave it alone for a while, now!  We've had to respond to a lot of URL and data changes this year!

Tom

Offline blainec

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Re: GFS changeover and new version
« Reply #11 on: June 14, 2019, 03:52:00 AM »
since this update, i get this screen after every forecast

Offline broadstairs

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Re: GFS changeover and new version
« Reply #12 on: June 14, 2019, 07:21:28 AM »
since this update, i get this screen after every forecast

I see that if wxsimate is set to use McMahon data, Bohler is fine. This will be fixed hopefully in the next few days when Chris McMahon returns.

Stuart

Offline JEB_Tucson

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Re: GFS changeover and new version
« Reply #13 on: June 14, 2019, 04:16:44 PM »
Switching wxsimate to Bohler is working fine for me also.

James B
DW4536

Offline blainec

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Re: GFS changeover and new version
« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2019, 01:30:59 AM »
Bohler works for me. 

Thanks