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Author Topic: Explosive cyclogenesis in the NW Pacific Ocean  (Read 936 times)

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Offline Harry

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Explosive cyclogenesis in the NW Pacific Ocean
« on: January 11, 2019, 09:58:55 PM »
Quote

A low pressure system in the Northwest Pacific Ocean has deepened 58 hPa in 24 hours ending January 10, 2019, producing hazardous conditions across the Pacific. 58 hPa in 24 hours is more than double the threshold (24 hPa in 24 hours) for 'explosive cyclogenesis' also known as 'bombogenesis' and 'bomb cyclone.'

This hurricane-force low is producing hazardous marine conditions, including winds to 148 km/h (92 mph) and widespread phenomenal seas with highest significant wave heights to 17.28 m (56.71 feet).

This is a strong indicator that major swell is on the way for the Hawaiian Islands this weekend and sizable swell for the West Coast U.S. early next week.

https://watchers.news/2019/01/11/explosive-cyclogenesis-nw-pacific-ocean/

Offline niko

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Re: Explosive cyclogenesis in the NW Pacific Ocean
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2019, 11:58:10 PM »
Interesting this hasn't attracted coverage from the usual suspects, Swain/WeatherWest etc.  :?

Offline Harry

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Re: Explosive cyclogenesis in the NW Pacific Ocean
« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2019, 12:27:07 AM »
Check out the wind forecast.

https://www.windy.com/?46.740,-174.902,4

Offline niko

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Re: Explosive cyclogenesis in the NW Pacific Ocean
« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2019, 12:32:19 AM »
Hmmm, I guess NW Pacific isn't where I was thinking of  :oops:

Not much difference between ECMWF and GFS on that map despite the recent predictions of the collapse of GFS...

Offline Harry

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Re: Explosive cyclogenesis in the NW Pacific Ocean
« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2019, 02:23:06 AM »
From NWS Honolulu.

Event:   High Surf Warning
Alert:   

...HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI...
 
...HIGH SURF WARNING FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND...
 
.A large northwest swell is forecast to build rapidly Saturday
morning, producing warning level surf to the exposed north and
west facing shores of the smaller islands and the west facing
shores of the Big Island. This swell is forecast to peak Saturday
evening and hold into Saturday night before gradually subsiding.
 
...HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM HST
SUNDAY...
The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a High Surf
Warning, which is in effect from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM HST
Sunday.
 
* SURF...25 to 35 feet for north and west facing shores of Niihau,
Kauai, and Molokai and north facing shores of Oahu and Maui, and
18 to 25 feet for west facing shores of Oahu.
 
* TIMING...rapidly building Saturday morning, peaking Saturday
evening, and holding through Saturday night.
 
* IMPACTS...Very High...Expect ocean water surging and sweeping
across beaches, coastal benches, and lava flows. Powerful
longshore and rip currents will be present at most beaches.
Large breaking waves and strong currents may impact harbor
entrances and channels causing challenging boat handling.

Instructions:   Large breaking surf, significant shorebreak, and dangerous currents make entering the water very hazardous. Anyone entering the water could face significant injury or death.

Target Area:   
Kauai Leeward
Kauai Windward
Maui Central Valley
Maui Windward West
Molokai Leeward
Molokai Windward
Niihau
Oahu Koolau
Oahu North Shore
Waianae Coast
Windward Haleakala
« Last Edit: January 12, 2019, 04:13:00 AM by Harry »

Offline Harry

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Re: Explosive cyclogenesis in the NW Pacific Ocean
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2019, 08:25:42 PM »
Northwest swell arrives here tomorrow.

Event:   Beach Hazards Statement
Alert:   

...INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES SUNDAY...
 
.A VERY LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND BRING AN INCREASE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT LONG LULLS BETWEEN LARGEST SETS. THE RISK OF SNEAKER
WAVES WILL DECREASE AS THE PERIOD DECREASES ON MONDAY.
 
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a Beach
Hazards Statement for increased risk of sneaker waves, which is
in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night.
 
* HAZARDS...Increased risk of sneaker waves on northern and
central California beaches.
 
* TIMING...9AM Sunday through 3AM Monday.
 
* LOCATION...Coastline from Sonoma County south through Monterey
County. In particular west to northwest facing
beaches...including but not limited to...Ocean Beach...Montara
State Beach...Asilomar State Beach and Marina State Beach.
 
* POTENTIAL IMPACTS...Steep beaches will have a higher risk of
sneaker wave activity with greater wave run-up onto beaches
than normally expected. Unsuspecting beach-goers may suddenly
be pulled out to sea. Never turn your back to the ocean!

Instructions:   A Beach Hazard Statement for sneaker waves means that conditions are present to support a heightened risk of unsuspecting beach goers being swept into the sea by a wave. People walking along the beach should never turn their back to the sea. Fisherman should avoid fishing from rocks or jetties.

Target Area:   
Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore
Northern Monterey Bay
San Francisco
San Francisco Peninsula Coast
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast

Offline niko

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Re: Explosive cyclogenesis in the NW Pacific Ocean
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2019, 08:28:38 PM »
Oh swell!

I mis-read the original as Pacific North West, not North West Pacific  :roll:

Offline niko

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Re: Explosive cyclogenesis in the NW Pacific Ocean
« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2019, 08:48:34 PM »
Himawari-8, and GOES-17satellite views

Offline Harry

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Re: Explosive cyclogenesis in the NW Pacific Ocean
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2019, 10:50:28 PM »
Oh swell!

I mis-read the original as Pacific North West, not North West Pacific  :roll:

 :)  No problem, niko.  When I have that problem, I just blame it on old age.   :)  But, that bad boy is huge!  I can't imagine what it would be like if it were close to the West Coast.

Offline NorCal Dan

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Re: Explosive cyclogenesis in the NW Pacific Ocean
« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2019, 01:05:19 PM »
Pacific Northwest affected as well...


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT   
Special Weather Statement

OCEAN PARK

Areas Affected:
South Washington Coast
Effective: Sat, 1/12 10:28am   Updated: Sun, 1/13 5:03am   Urgency: Expected
Expires: Sun, 1/13 6:00pm   Severity: Minor   Certainty: Observed
 
Details:
...INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES SUNDAY...
A building and powerful swell will provide the potential for
dangerous sneaker waves along the Washington and Oregon coasts on
Sunday. Water may rise further up on beaches than observed within
the previous 30 minutes and easily sweep unsuspecting beach-goers
into the frigid water. A number of sneaker wave incidents and
fatalities have occurred under similar scenarios in the past.
Please use caution if you plan on recreating on area beaches and
avoid jetties on Sunday.

 

cumulus