Well, it seems to confirm my original post.
The automation of the GFS data has changed due to the shutdown. This means that the initialisation has issues, and the human input for removing/adding in bias to the model is not being done. This also means that work has stopped on the F3V model too - it hasn’t even initialised the 12Z. This will also impact the FV3 taking over as the GFS operational, a substantial delay is likely.
Verification stats for both the GFS and FV3 are extremely poor right now.