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Author Topic: GFS Performance / Government Shutdown  (Read 575 times)

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Offline Mapantz

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GFS Performance / Government Shutdown
« on: January 07, 2019, 11:15:57 PM »
Hi there.

I've just been reading an article regarding the GFS and the government shutdown.

Washington Post reporting that GFS performance is being affected due to lack of employees maintaining how it works. I don't know whether it's fake news or not, but it was mentioned on the weather channel, so who knows?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown


It'll be interesting to monitor WXSIM's output.  :D

Regards.

Offline tbrasel

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Re: GFS Performance / Government Shutdown
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2019, 10:45:13 AM »
If a person (really) gives a rats tail about accuracy, such a person be very cautious about the data said person would ingest.
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tbrasel

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Offline Mapantz

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Re: GFS Performance / Government Shutdown
« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2019, 11:47:28 AM »
If a person (really) gives a rats tail about accuracy, such a person be very cautious about the data said person would ingest.

99% of your country uses GFS data for official forecasts.  :lol:

Offline niko

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Re: GFS Performance / Government Shutdown
« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2019, 03:11:27 PM »
99% of your country uses GFS data for official forecasts.  :lol:

I'm not sure that's still true  :?  Even my local TV station's 2 man wx operation looks at multiple models, and if there's a big divergence between GFS and e.g. ECMWF then they show it both ways.

Offline Mapantz

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Re: GFS Performance / Government Shutdown
« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2019, 04:04:28 PM »
I'm not sure that's still true  :?  Even my local TV station's 2 man wx operation looks at multiple models, and if there's a big divergence between GFS and e.g. ECMWF then they show it both ways.

They don't all rely a single model, they'll use a blend of data. But you can bet that the GFS data is almost certainly always used within that blend for your country - it's your premier model. The same way our Met Office uses a blend of ECM, DWD and MOGREPS data.

Offline niko

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Re: GFS Performance / Government Shutdown
« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2019, 04:38:48 PM »
They don't all rely a single model, they'll use a blend of data. But you can bet that the GFS data is almost certainly always used within that blend for your country - it's your premier model.

Agreed, a blend it is, but if the GFS is an outlier its data is likely to be discounted in the end result.

Offline tbrasel

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Re: GFS Performance / Government Shutdown
« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2019, 09:31:09 PM »
Agreed, a blend it is, but if the GFS is an outlier its data is likely to be discounted in the end result.

Thanks Niko, the above is what I was attempting to articulate.  :D
Best Regards
tbrasel

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Offline Mapantz

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Re: GFS Performance / Government Shutdown
« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2019, 09:50:46 PM »
Well, it seems to confirm my original post.

The automation of the GFS data has changed due to the shutdown. This means that the initialisation has issues, and the human input for removing/adding in bias to the model is not being done. This also means that work has stopped on the F3V model too - it hasn't even initialised the 12Z. This will also impact the FV3 taking over as the GFS operational, a substantial delay is likely.

Verification stats for both the GFS and FV3 are extremely poor right now.