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Author Topic: WXSim Pro Learning Routine - How Too  (Read 5765 times)

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Offline Budgie

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WXSim Pro Learning Routine - How Too
« on: May 14, 2013, 09:13:18 PM »
This is a "How Too" for the Learning Comparison Routine within WRET which, when run, checks your past forecasts against you own weather data of what actually happened and comes up with an average correction which WXSim then uses when doing a forecast run.
Note: This will only work if you have WXSIM Pro version!  :wink:

Open WRET and make sure your archived forecasts (f13050103.wxf) are listed in the "Retrieve data" area, top left.

Note: The data & time of the forecast run is in the file name:
f13050103.wxf = Year - 2013
f13050103.wxf = Month - May
f13050103.wxf = Day - 1st
f13050103.wxf = Forecast Run Hour - 03:00
 
Choose a forecast file from, say, a month ago by clicking on it in the list and then click the "Compare to Actuals" button. This will open that forecast run and compare it to what actually happened. Click on the "Set as Earliest Date" in the WRET window and make sure that the "Starting Day" is set to 1 and "Number for days" is set to 4.

Now, with the forecast window still open, go back to the WRET and click on a recent forecast run.
Note: This forecast run MUST be more than four days old!!
Now click on the button marked "Auto Select" and WRET will scroll through the forecast files until it comes the first one you chose and a new window will open with "Auto Compare" at the top. WRET will now compare all the forecast runs from the first file to last file you selected and the forecast, actual and error temperatures for the 4 days will be displayed.
This will take some time, especially if you selected to compare a few months worth of forecasts, so just let it run.
Note: The page may go blank if something else on the PC runs at the same time or if you click on another window, but the routine will continue to run, even though it doesn't look like it is, so just leave it to do its thing.  :wink:

When the run has finished it will display the results, you may get a window warning about "Temperature correction (slope) out of expected range..." I normally just click OK, there will a graphs button to display what it's done and it asks if you want to accept the values, click either YES or NO.

If you accepted the values then open WXSIM and go to Preferences > Settings > Model bias and learned correction factors (pro mode only) > put a tick in the box next to "Use learned bias corrections > click "Apply All Changes" and you're done.  :wink:

Do this every 3 or 4 months and you can go back as far as you want, just remember how long it'll take to run the comparison though.  :wink:

Edit: I have produced a short video which shows the process and this can be found on YouTube:wink:

Martin.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2015, 11:03:30 AM by Budgie »

Offline duke666

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Re: WXSim Pro Learning Routine - How Too
« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2013, 05:43:19 PM »
Martin, thank you for taking the time for this. I shall be following your instructions shortly.

Offline Tom Ehrensperger

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Re: WXSim Pro Learning Routine - How Too
« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2013, 02:16:34 AM »
Cross-posting here, I guess, but it's totally relevant! :-)

I've written a pretty extensive explanation of all kinds of aspects of error and how to reduce it with the learning routine.  It may be a bit much to read in one shot (16 pages, including numerous illustrations), but I think people will find it very informative and helpful.  It's a first draft of sorts, so suggestions are welcome!

Here it is:

http://www.wxsim.com/wxsim_accuracy.docx

Tom

Offline CQCQDX

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Re: WXSim Pro Learning Routine - How Too
« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2013, 05:27:47 PM »
Hi
If I try this I see always  into the screen Auto Compare
( no good forecasts to work with )
And after the HR I see only 0.0
In every line  like this
(M3108 2013  4 23 19   0,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,0)

I most do something wrong but I don’t know what ?
Any idée ?
(and also after the new update wxsim  12.10 my forecasts is to high)

Greetings  Gert
« Last Edit: July 09, 2013, 05:30:30 PM by CQCQDX »

Offline Tom Ehrensperger

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Re: WXSim Pro Learning Routine - How Too
« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2013, 10:41:08 PM »
Hi Gert,

Two possibilities:

(1) Are the forecasts old enough so that all the days have passed by now (meaning, are they at least 5 days old)?  They probably are, but I need to make sure.

(2) Do these forecasts have an output time interval of 30 minutes (look at latest.txt to see easily)?  They should.  An hour is OK, too, as long as you are not using 3 iterations per interval).

If these two things are OK, then I can check into this further.

Tom

Offline CQCQDX

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Re: WXSim Pro Learning Routine - How Too
« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2013, 04:06:55 PM »
hi Tom
just discover the  mistake
into the screen comparison to actual station data  my line to the data files was wrong 
it was C:\wxsim  ..... but it most by C:\wdisplay\logfiles
now it is ok  and al is working  now
and no error's
problem is fix
greetings  Gert

Offline embayweather

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Re: WXSim Pro Learning Routine - How Too
« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2013, 10:11:14 PM »
What am I doing wrong ?? I am trying to run this and each time I get *vws.txt file not found. Manual search cannot find it. How are they produced so I can use them. Please remember whilst I have had the program many years I am only just now having time to be able to use it properly, so very much a newbie on this.

Thanks
Mike

Online M.P.C.

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Re: WXSim Pro Learning Routine - How Too
« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2013, 06:42:38 PM »
 :oops: #-o
Autolearn.exe not responding!
Help my!


Offline Budgie

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Re: WXSim Pro Learning Routine - How Too
« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2013, 11:18:37 PM »
It does that sometimes when something in the background does an upload or something, but the learning routine is still running.
If you leave it for a while and see if it completes and shows on the screen.  :wink:
If it remains on there with a blank screen and the "not responding" for more than 10-15 minutes then it's something else.