FIRE THEN ICE

The humidity has been down around 5% here. No wonder I smelled smoked in the air. Fortunately, the wind hasn’t been real strong, but any amount of wind under such dry conditions is too much. A big winter storm is in the works soon. It’s severity is still unknown for sure, according to discussion below.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

.DISCUSSION…
FIRE… THEN ICE. DRY BREEZY AND RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD WARM CONDITIONS LEADING TO HOT SPOTS BREAKING OUT ALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTH AS COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL/SW KS MOVES S THROUGH AREA TONIGHT BRINGING FIRST SHOT OF COLDER AIR. UPPER SYSTEM OVER TX WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF -RA SE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

COLD SFC HIGH HAS BUILT NICELY OVER CANADA AND WILL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR THROUGH MONDAY TO SET UP A POTENTIAL MAJOR MESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINTER STORM WATCH IS INEVITIBLE BUT WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW DUE TO THE WORST OF THE EVENT LIKELY UNFOLDING IN PERIODS 5/6. STILL MANY VARIABLES AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS - ANOTHER REASON WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING. IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION FROM RA/DZ TO ICE TO SNOW WILL BE RATHER SWIFT AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FAVORS HEAVY SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA BUT TRACK OF UPPER SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE SO IS THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS. STRONG WINDS LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND POSSIBLY BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SOME AREAS BY TUESDAY… AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS -10 TO -20 BY WED MORNING.

ALL RESOURCES TODAY ARE BEING BROUGHT TO BEAR ON THE COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF EVENTS FROM NOW THROUGH TUE-WED… SO NO BIG CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THAT.