"Beta" version 12.5

Hi Everybody,

I think I’ve got a new version worth testing, but still a bit for official release. I figured some of you would want to try it out!

First, here’s the main new feature:

The retrieval module (wret.exe) now has an ‘auto select’ feature which allows quick analysis of a very large number of old forecasts. This feature also allows you to save the results, which (if you have professional mode) can be used to fine-tune WXSIM’s forecasts! (in terms of temperature and humidity, anyway).

I have not yet written a thorough description of how to use this. There is a new blue-text help item in wret.exe that more or less explains it. I’ll supplement just a bit here.

When you open wret.exe, you’ll see some new buttons. Select a forecast from a while back (months ago, if you have it) and click Compare to Actuals. This sort of initiates things so the new feature can work. (You do NOT have to check the ‘Combine’ box.)

Next, click the ‘Set as Earliest Date’ button. After that, click on a more recent forecast (but at least four days old). Then, click ‘Auto Select’. A bunch of stuff will happen, including the display of a bunch of text data. In some of my testing, there have been formatting/scrolling problems on this form, and the data has been presented out of order, but it’s all there.

Several (hopefully somewhat self-explanatory) parameters will be listed, and you can view a couple of (hopefully somewhat self-explanatory) graphs. The really good part, though, is that you can click YES so the results will be saved as cor.txt.

This file can be read by WXSIM (if you check the new box that appears after you click READY/GFS Bias Factors button on the import form). From that point onward, WXSIM will record in the .wxf files what correction factors it just used, so they can be iteratively refined with future uses of the feature.

Roughly equal weights are given to the last 10 days of data, the last 40 days, and the whole group (months), so the values will slowly adjust, but will have enough there to keep them fairly stable. There’s a variable which is recorded if you don’t get enough model, etc. data for a “good” forecast, and such forecasts will (I think) be properly omitted from future analysis. Likewise, forecasts with average temperature errors over 10 degrees C (18 degrees F) will be omitted (as there’s almost certainly some error beyond noral forecasting errors).

After you run such an analysis, I think you may get an error if you go straight to the Compare to Actuals button again. however, you can use the Set as Earliest Date button, and select different ending times, and run it again.

By the way, your forecasts need to go out at least four days, because the analysis is made of days 2 through 4.

OK, to get the new files, just download these and use them to overwrite existing. I haven’t integrated them into an installer yet, so do this “by hand”.

www.wxsim.com/wxsim.exe
www.wxsim.com/wret.exe
www.wxsim.com/help2.txt

I wouldn’t be surprised if there are some bugs or confusing items, but it’s basically functional for me, here.

I plan to be out of town for a couple days, but I’m curoius for feedback when I return! :slight_smile:

Tom

Thanks Tom for this new feature - intuitive adaption and learning to fine tune a site and the forecasts because as you intimate, that the forecasts will deviate more from the true weather after 2 or 3 days if there is a fault or a parameter offset with the settings that needs to be corrected. Thanks.

By the way, I solved my problem with System Scheduler shutting Opera down every time as well as Wxsim module. I taught SS to find Wxsim and the descriptive header “Wxsim Data Entry” and also unticked “For EVERY matching window detected” and left “The FIRST open window detected” ticked. Not sure if that was the right thing, but at least finding the correct file title was the key. I then remembered to reset the Auto run setting “Reactivate on next start”. :wink:

Hi Tom

Thank you very much for this great development.

I have already played a bit with it - but everytime I try I get an error (see attached pic) when I choose to view graphs.

Best regards,

Henrik


Tom I have a problem with this. When I start I select an old forecast and click on compare to actuals, it displays the graph and I close the window, then select this same forecast as the earliest, then select another later forecast and click auto select. I then get an Error at line 1909; subscript out of range error. This happens every time I do it.

Stuart

OK. I found Henrik’s error when I clicked on Show Graphs. Second time, I tried and accepted the results without trying to look at the graphs. I then ran WXSIM and the new forecast was different to the old one and seemed more realistic. In fact, some of the results were the same, or within a

Suggestion #2

Could you possibly have a feature on it allowing it to start automatically on switch on, for the period (today-n) days (user selectable)??? My idea is to use ‘scheduled tasks’ at appropriate intervals (say, once every week) to update it without my having to do it manually. Just an idea… ???

Still no problem (other than the Show Graphs).

I assume this ‘correction file’ must be made manually using wret.exe and isn’t triggered by wxsim runs or wxsimate runs automatically… once it is configured??

Hmm… Have somebody problems with starting wret.exe at all?
My wret.exe did not start at all and i get the “Error at line 1909; subscript out of range”-error every time i try to start it. WxSim works else fine, no problems.

Henkka

Henkka that’s is exactly what I get (see my post in here), I’ve emailed Tom but I guess he is either very busy or away since he has not responded.

Stuart

OK, it’s early days yet and we have had some exceptional weather with a Saharan dust plume, but you may be interested in this before and after shot:


I’d love to get this working but everytme I try I get the “Error at line 1909; subscript out of range” error. No matter what I do it will just not run for me, this happens when you select the second forecast archive file every time.

Stuart

Hi Everybody,

I was out of town for a couple of days, but am back now, and will try to sort out these “teething problems” with the new feature.

It looks like some of yoiu are having partial success, and others none at all. I think my instructions are correct (at least in the sense that they yield success here), but there are some things to check.

First, I happen to have done my testing using WeatherLink rather than Weather Display. I may need to diversify my testing. Also, there could conceivably be problems with commas versus periods as decimal points (different Windows regional settings). Another problem is that of perhaps some forecasts being too short, or of trying to use forecasts too recent to have collected four days of data on them.

Check to see if any of the above apply. Also, try a very small batch of files first (like maybe just two or three) and - again - don’t make the last one less than four days old.

Thanks!

Tom

Tom in terms of my problem I have ensured that my forecasts were old enough, in fact some were from last year that I tried. Also tried with just a few (3 or 4) forecasts. My regional settings are probably similar to yours in terms of periods rather than commas, but ofcourse my dates are dd/mm/yyyy. All my forecasts do 5 days which I would have thought would be enough, I also have multiple forecasts per day (3 in fact for most days).

Stuart

Tom,

My problem is, Wret did not start at all, WxSim runs ok but when i try to start Wret I get the “Error at line 1909; subscript out of range” error, no matter if try to start it directly or troght WxSim. I have tried to fix .NET Framework if where there the problem was but did not help either.

Henkka

Thanks for the feedback so far! :slight_smile:

First, I have a new version of wret.exe just posted. It’s at

www.wxsim.com/wret.exe

Just download that and use it to overwrite the previous version.

I found that Stuart’s problem was because I had not made date format versatile enough to include dd/mm/yy. I now have. I also made a change that might prevent problems for regional settings which use commas as decimal separators. I also made a couple of other corrections.

Regarding wret.exe having an error right away, try this first: make a quick, simple forecast with WXSIM, and see if you can then start wret.exe OK. It could be that there was just one bad .wxf file, and that would clear it out. Another possibility is a corrupted retini.txt file. You could send me that so I can perhaps find the problem.

Thanks, and let me know how it goes with this new version!

Tom

Tom,

Wohaa, this new wret.exe together with re-copyed the retini.txt-file from the customized .zip fixed it, now it works! :smiley:

Best regs
henkka

Hi Tom

Thanks for the update - I got it working now - but I get some errros - see attached pics.

And the graph looks a little strange too - I compared forecasts for 9 days.

Best regards,

Henrik


wret.jpg

wret2.jpg

wret3.jpg

Hi Tom,
I did run the new versions and only got the following error… after I pressed the OK for the error I did also accepted the proposed values… I don’t know if this was good or bad, anyway I did see the graph as well but to tell you the truth I could not understand what it was all about. I got also the cor.txt file… so I’ll keep watching the forecasts to see how they turn up from now on…
Regards
Peter


I did exactly the same as you Peter, when I got info box (error). :wink:

Just one thing I don’t understand; how often should this be run?
Is it a case of “once you’ve started it then it’ll run itself”, “it only needs to be run once” or is it something that you run once a month to keep the cor.txt up to date?

Cheers,
Martin.

Tom I’m still getting the subscript out of range error with the new wret.exe.

Stuart