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Author Topic: Hurricane Season-An Early Look (LA NINA)  (Read 8579 times)

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Offline liveweatherman

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Hurricane Season-An Early Look (LA NINA)
« on: May 19, 2008, 10:53:43 AM »
The LaNina pattern the last few months has been getting weaker and weaker. This could signal the slow end to La Nina and maybe a start to El Nino by the end of the year. The El Nino start is a long shot so I would want to focus more on the LaNina fading pattern for hurricane outlook.

The Hurricane season officially starts June 1 but with this type of pattern I do think this will not get going until August. We could see a stray system before than but due to climatology factors and the fading La Nina I think the %'s are that this is a August-October season.

The ocean temps in the Atlantic Ocean are up this year but it's not all over the Atlantic Ocean. The Central and Eastern tropical Atlantic were a little off the pace but should start to increase by early June. The target this year could be the US coast on the Atlantic side. My call is that Hatteras to Miami have an increased chance of a hurricane this year in August and September. The La Nina issue and the warmer waters WILL INCREASE the chances in the normally active Carolina Zone.

FROM THE W.M.O. (World Meteorology Organization)
WMO had predicted last October that the phenomenon would last until March.

But it said Monday that it now appeared likely that it would persist until June or July and could last longer. It said it was still difficult at this stage to predict how long.

"During the last three months La Niña conditions have become slightly stronger," a WMO statement said. "Sea surface temperatures are now about 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius (2.7-3.6 Fahrenheit) colder than average over large parts of the central an eastern Equatorial Pacific."

This La Niña had been in the average range of such events, but the recent cooling will likely put it in the stronger-than-average category, WMO said.

La Niña normally lasts nine to 12 months. The current event started in the July-September quarter of last year, WMO said.

"It is rare for a La Niña event to persist for two years or more, such as occurred from early 1998 to early 2000," WMO said. "The likelihood of the current La Niña continuing for such a period will remain unclear for some months."

La Niña is the flip side of the El Niño phenomenon, where Pacific surface temperatures rise and are blamed for other changes in weather patterns around the world. continue
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Offline Weather Display

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Re: Hurricane Season-An Early Look (LA NINA)
« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2008, 09:17:21 PM »
if you go with the 11 year sun spot cycle driving the la nina/el nino, then a repeat of the big la ninas of end of the 80's could repeat in the early 2010 decade

Offline niko

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Re: Hurricane Season-An Early Look (LA NINA)
« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2008, 10:59:47 PM »
Liveweatherman: Do you have permission to repost that article that is "Copyright © 2008, MyWeatherLive.com. All rights reserved."? If not then it will be removed.

Offline liveweatherman

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Re: Hurricane Season-An Early Look (LA NINA)
« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2008, 09:54:26 AM »
Liveweatherman: Do you have permission to repost that article that is "Copyright © 2008, MyWeatherLive.com. All rights reserved."? If not then it will be removed.

Yes.. I have the permission to repost the article.. :wink:
Is it ok to post here such article from a promet for the purpose of opening a possible discussion on the thread?
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Offline niko

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Re: Hurricane Season-An Early Look (LA NINA)
« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2008, 01:57:41 PM »
If you do post copyrighted material you need to acknowledge the source and state that you have their permisssion to republish, otherwise it looks like you are taking credit for someone else's work. It's also not a good use of this forum's resources and bandwidth. Better would be to simply post a relevant quote from the article (assuming it's on topic for the forum in which you are posting it), acknowledging the source and post a link.

However, there's not much added value to this forum by just posting duplicates of postings on other forums, or just posting links to articles on other forums. That tends to look like linkspamming...

Offline liveweatherman

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Re: Hurricane Season-An Early Look (LA NINA)
« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2008, 11:24:35 AM »
Got your point..I understand..thanks for the concern..:)
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Bashy

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Re: Hurricane Season-An Early Look (LA NINA)
« Reply #6 on: May 21, 2008, 02:19:08 PM »
if you go with the 11 year sun spot cycle driving the la nina/el nino, then a repeat of the big la ninas of end of the 80's could repeat in the early 2010 decade

Hi Brian

I watched a very interesting documentary with regards to the sun spots and it was predicted to be around
the 2010 - 2020, it was a little scary watching it actually cause they were referring to a mini ice age and what problems we might face when it comes....

Offline niko

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Re: Hurricane Season-An Early Look (LA NINA)
« Reply #7 on: May 21, 2008, 05:11:58 PM »
Hi Brian

I watched a very interesting documentary with regards to the sun spots and it was predicted to be around
the 2010 - 2020, it was a little scary watching it actually cause they were referring to a mini ice age and what problems we might face when it comes....

I didn't see a documentary but I saw a lot of articles like this Australian one not too long ago with that same prediction.

Bashy

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Re: Hurricane Season-An Early Look (LA NINA)
« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2008, 05:20:56 PM »
Thats a good read, there must be something in it for so many to come out with this, the docu was
a very good watch and like i said it did worry me a little with what they were saying, I told her indoors
about it and she just told me to shut up pmsl, i said on your head be it but i want to stock up on tinned foods lol

Offline liveweatherman

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Re: Hurricane Season-An Early Look (LA NINA)
« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2008, 11:06:24 AM »
There were predictions of this coming little ice-age..NASA has predicted that the solar cycle peaking in 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries and should cause a very significant cooling of Earth’s climate.  If this little ice-age will be coming this is more threatening than Global Warming due to many plants and animals won't survive in a colder temperature..
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