Low pressure circa 945hpa heading towards UK/Ireland Sunday/Monday

Hi All,

more a heads up for this, than anything else.
from the last chart I saw looks like it will be further south than the normal bash the west coast of Scotland one.
looks like it could get very windy, and a lot of low barometer records could be set in Ireland / UK.

Steve

Yes last night on BBC SE news they had Michael Fish doing the weather (he’s a regular on there now) and he said that at the risk of looking silly (remember his hurricane forecast) we could be in for some bad weather on Monday. He said that right now they are not sure how far south it is likely to come in its track. Hope its not as bad as '87 because I have to get up to London for a hospital appointment on Monday!

Stuart

You should be safe enough Stuart, for now it looks like later on Monday before it gets into Northern England,
though we know how things can change in the next few days,

the last forecast chart I saw looks like the “eye” of this will be passing over where I am, east coast of Northern Ireland,
at present they have 50mph winds dropping to 0 for a time around midday Monday, then picking up again,
will be interesting to see what happens.

Steve

Met Office fax image below, although where the low will be changes with each chart
here it looks like a bash western Scotland (again)

Steve

Bye eck!!! That looks pretty adjacent to Skyewright, Budgie and even me…Ooooher… 8O

Perhaps a walk around looking for anything loose (unlikely to be still anything left loose at this time of year, but still worth checking) and making sure the rechargeables are all recharged does seem to be in order…

something I just noticed about that chart different to the others I saw,
just how far south the 528 line is.

no wonder my WXSIM has been forecasting snow for Monday,
hopefully not a “White Juan” http://www.ns.ec.gc.ca/weather/severe/2003-2004/whitejuan_e.html
though I did enjoy that(where I was 95cm snow in 1 day).

Steve

Latest pressure forecast on the Met Office site looks like 935 hPa

Hi!

This is how it looks on Meteoblue maps:

http://www.weerstationlangerak.nl/20080310.swf

Good luck ! :wink:

Lets hop it changes track a bit and goes much farther North or South.

Stuart

And my wife’s on the ferry to Inverness on Monday!! 8O

The Meteoblue run seems to take it lower than what the UKMO is forecasting and that seems to give us up here less wind strenght than the like so f the Irish Sea and Englandshire.

The Meteoblue looks like most of the non Met Office charts I’ve seen,
and the centre of the low right over where I am around midday at least should be quiet for a bit then :?

Talk on other forums about this. The jet is going to beome extremley fast moving Left en Right ex , pressure down to 930-940 hpa expected with surafce winds gusting anywhere between 60-90 mph quite widespread.

The biggest concern is the convective outbusts which bring down 850-900 hpa winds, in this situation we could see extreme winds in and around the cold front as it moves east.

Definetly worth keeping an eye on this, i have never seen the jetstream so strong around a core like this, could be the worst night in a couple of decades.

for sure one to watch,
local weather forecaster on TV here flinched and visably shuddered when she said still some doubt about Monday
looked like I hope it’s not going to happen moment
but as she is cute I’ll let her away with it this time lol :smiley:

can I build a storm shelter in 3 days? :hathat22:

You better start digging!! :wink:

forget the shelter, I work for a family business, lol, so the shop will be open, just brush the falling debris away and carry on
the shop (original building) has been there since 1701 so hopefully can withstand this.

Steve

BBC Chart for Monday 06:00utc

not as detailed as the Met Office, but it gives an idea of what’s coming

Steve

First word from the met office on this, early warnings issued
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Looks at the moment as if southwest going to get direct hit, I’m in Newquay on the north coast :frowning: exposed

Indeed still looking potentially nasty, the GFS has slightly donwgraded the core to the 950’s but jet remains the same with very high 90 mph gusts possible in Ireland / Scotland and western facing coasts.

Potential for funnels / maybe micro Meso’s embedded in the lively cold front and here we could see some very strong SLW’s, however once the cld front has gone through winds will generally start to die over the country, but then firing back up along the south coast southern areas later on after around 6pm.

Certainly very exciting weather over the next 24 hours.