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Author Topic: AREA OF FORECAST DISCUSSION: FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA  (Read 3298 times)

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Offline sunnyside

  • Posts: 108
  • Jessica Alba
  • San Francisco, California, USA
AREA OF FORECAST DISCUSSION: FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
« on: August 10, 2006, 05:22:19 AM »
Wednesday, Aug 9, 2006
10:15 pm

DISCUSSION... TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM AROUND THE BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTLY OF HIGHS RECORED IN THE 80íS AND 90íS. TEMPERATURES REPORTED... SAN FRANCISCO 87, OAKLAND 91, SAN MATEO 89, SAN JOSE 92 AND CONCORD 99. MOST LOCATIONS REMAINED ADJACENT TEMPERATURES AND THIS IS BECAUSE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SHALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MARINE LAYER TOTALLY VANISHED FROM THE COAST, NOT EVEN A SPOT OF STRATUS WAS FOUND. AS THE DAY WORE ON GRADIENTS BEGAN TO INCREASE AND THAT ALLOW A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE CURRENT FORT ORD PROFILER STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY DECENT WARM AIR MASS IN THE LOWER PBL, SO THIS MEANS NO STRATUS TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A FEW SPOTS OF FOG MAYBE SEEN NEAR THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE, WHICH IS FORECASTED TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY.

850 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO BREAK DOWN BY THURSDAY MORNING AND ALLOW AN ONSHORE FLOW TO REASTABLISH ITSELF. THE TIMING OF THE COOLING IS A TUG OF WAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ETA MOS. THE ETA SHOW A HIGH IN SAN FRANCISCO AT 82 AND GFS SHOW 77, BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS AGREES THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND THE PENINSULA. ETA DOESNíT SHOW ANY COOLING TILL FRIDAY... THE FORECAST HIGH FOR SAN FRANCISCO WILL BE ESTIMATED AROUND 75... THE WAY HOW THINGS ARE LOOKING HERE, WEíLL GO WITH THE GFS AND NAM MOS.

CONTINUING WITH THE FORECAST... A DEVELOPED TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH WILL BE VERY BAGGY EPECIALLY AT THE 700 MB ITíS WELL DEFINED WITH LOWER HEIGHTS CURVING THROUGH. WITH THIS IN THE FORECAST THIS WILL ALLOW COLLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER PBL AND WILL RISE THE INVERSION LAYER. ACTUALLY THIS WILL CREATE A ROBUST MARINE LAYER, UP TO 2500 FT OR PERHAPS MORE.850 MB WILL COOL TO 19 C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND 700 MB WILL COOL TO 9 C AS WELL. HEIGHTS WILL DROPPED BELOW 588 AND THICKNESS BELOW 576 DM. EVIDENTLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING WONíT AFFECT US UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THIS WAVE FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CURVE THROUGH. OVER THE WEEKEND THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD.

Offline sunnyside

  • Posts: 108
  • Jessica Alba
  • San Francisco, California, USA
Re: AREA OF FORECAST DISCUSSION: FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2006, 04:33:58 PM »
Thursday, Aug 10, 2006
9:25 am

DISCUSSION... VISISBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER PEAKING AT THE GOLDEN GATE EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THIS MARINE LAYER IS SHALLOW BECAUSE OF THE DEEP WARM AIR THAT REMAINS ALOFT. THE FORT ORD ALSO NOTED OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS THE MARINE LAYER IS INCREASING HEIGHT. I EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TOMORROW. THE CURRENT KOAK SOUNDING INDICATED THE INVERSION AT 950 MB ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SOUTHERLY SURGE, WHICH WILL HELP SHOVE IN THE MARINE LAYER TODAY.PRESSURE IS MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS AT 1015 MB AND CURRENTLY AT 1013, WHICH IS EXPECT TO DECREASE LATER ON AND DEVELOP A MODERATE SEA BREEZE. WATER VAPOR IMAGE INDICATES THE TROUGH 130˚ W AND 43˚ N AND EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER ON TODAY.

WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY BUT MUCH COOLER FOR THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSH IN THE MARINE LAYER. THIS MARINE LAYER WILL RAPIDLY THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AND RAISE THE INVERSION LAYER. THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TONGUING THE OREGON COAST AT THIS HOUR AND EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER OVERNIGHT AND MAY BRING SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AND THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER EVEN MORE, PERHAPS UP TO 2500 FT.


LONG RANGE... TROUGH PUSHES FAR NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AND A WEAK SAHLLOW CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.THE LOW WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERLY SURGE AND PILE UP THE MARINE LAYER AGAINST THE COAST SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL TMEPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WEST.


SCA ADVISORY WILL BE IN AFFECT AS THE STRONG SEA BREEZE WINDS KICK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT 20KT AND GUST TO 25KT... SCA ADVISORY AFFECTS SAN FRANCISCO SHORELINE, ACROSS THE BAY AND DOWN THE PENINSULA TO THE SAN MATEO COAST.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2006, 05:27:54 AM by sunnyside »

Offline NorCal Dan

  • Dan - KJ6RGX
  • Posts: 10,580
  • Davis Vue/Win10
  • Ocean Park, WA.
    • Traveling RV Weather
Re: AREA OF FORECAST DISCUSSION: FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2006, 06:25:24 PM »
Please send delta breeze my way...thanks  :)

My WxSim forecast for my location:

Quote
Today: Mostly sunny, but some high thin clouds in the morning, becoming sunny,
 with just a few high thin clouds in the afternoon. High 94. Wind southwest
 around 5 mph.
 
 Tonight: Mostly clear, with just a few high thin clouds. Low 67. Wind south
 around 3 mph in the evening, becoming east-southeast after midnight.
 
 Friday: Sunny, with just a few high thin clouds. High 92. Wind south-southwest
 around 3 mph in the morning, becoming 6 mph in the afternoon.
 
 Friday night: Mostly clear, with just a few high thin clouds. Low 66. Wind
 south-southwest around 3 mph in the evening, becoming south-southeast after
 midnight.
 
 Saturday: Sunny. High 92. Wind southwest around 4 mph.
 
 Saturday night: Clear. Low 66. Wind south-southwest near calm in the evening,
 becoming east after midnight.
 
 Sunday: Sunny. High 93. Wind southwest around 4 mph.
 
 Sunday night: Clear in the evening, becoming mostly clear after midnight. Low
 67. Wind south-southwest around 3 mph.
 
 Monday: Sunny. High 92. Wind south around 5 mph.
 
 Monday night: Clear. Low 66. Wind south around 2 mph in the evening, becoming
 southeast after midnight.