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Author Topic: WxSim Output Analysis  (Read 6023 times)

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Offline jmcmurry

  • Jim McMurry
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WxSim Output Analysis
« on: June 23, 2006, 03:53:25 PM »
Tom is currently working on an automated version of WxSim in response to requests from this board.  I also noticed that on his web site he solicits feedback data to help him refine his program.

I'm wondering if there's someone on the board with programming experience who would be interested in building a small analysis program so we can provide some organized and meaningful feedback for Tom, as well as providing the user with an easy way to view how each forecast came out.

WxSim and WD both provide .csv files that could be read, and pertinent data placed in an Excel spreadsheet template for instance.  I'm sure there are more elegant solutions, but all are beyond my capabilities.

I'm sure Tom would be more than willing to work with someone who had an interest in doing this.  I imagine that forecast results from around the world would be invaluable to his future developments.  What do y'all think?

- Jim

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Offline administrator

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Re: WxSim Output Analysis
« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2006, 07:58:21 PM »
This was a goal of mine (and still is when I get time to take it further). Tom added CSVs on my suggestion so that I could do what you have suggested. If I remember correctly I got stuck because WD can output current data in CSV format, but you actually want a few days history in that format. You can load the current WD CSV output into a database and (I think) that was what I was intending to do next.
Chris
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Offline jmcmurry

  • Jim McMurry
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Re: WxSim Output Analysis
« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2006, 11:50:02 AM »
hmmm,

Perhaps easier to read WD's .txt logfiles like Tom apparently does in WxSimMate?

- Jim

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Offline Tom Ehrensperger

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Re: WxSim Output Analysis
« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2006, 03:14:40 PM »
Hi,

The analysis (comparing WXSIM output to actuals) is an excellent idea.  The log files may be the way to go with it.  It's possible I could provide that capability somewhere in WXSIM - maybe in the retrieval module (which is actually a separate program, wret.exe).  WD data could be graphed against WXSIM's retrieved forecasts, and perhaps some statistical analysis could be done as well.

I'll give that some thought.  Meanwhile, I'm very rapidly getting the new version of WXSIM ready.  The automation feature is actually working rather well, in both WXSIM and WXSIMATE.  I've actually got some beta testing going on that right now.  I've now started on the text forecast output, which will appear at the end of the text forecast output (unless someone has a better suggestion).

My hope is to have this ready for wider beta testing (maybe by posing on this forum where to download it) by about next Wednesday, to allow a few days of testing.   I can then  spend a week or so acting on any feedback, and hopefully be ready for release the first week or two in July! :-)

I'll also give more thought to the analysis idea.

Tom

Offline administrator

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Re: WxSim Output Analysis
« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2006, 03:36:00 PM »
The analysis (comparing WXSIM output to actuals) is an excellent idea.  The log files may be the way to go with it.  It's possible I could provide that capability somewhere in WXSIM - maybe in the retrieval module (which is actually a separate program, wret.exe).  WD data could be graphed against WXSIM's retrieved forecasts, and perhaps some statistical analysis could be done as well.

That would be an excellent add on for people who have both WxSim and WD :D It would make a lot of sense to add it into WxSim because you already have the forecast data and you also have the code to read data from WD's files. What would also be interesting would be keeping input data from a few days ago and then re-running it changing different WxSim parameters and checking how well the forecast from a few days ago compared to what really happened. I think that would make an awesome self-training tool for learning how to tweak WxSim to get good forecasts for your own area.
Chris
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Offline chucl1932

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Re: WxSim Output Analysis
« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2006, 04:45:52 PM »
Tom I agree totally with Chris. It would surly help a great program get better.
Chuck

Offline jmcmurry

  • Jim McMurry
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Re: WxSim Output Analysis
« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2006, 04:57:05 PM »
Tom,

Wret.exe would be a great place to add the analysis capability.  You may want to output the results of the comparison to file for both our use, and possibly as feedback to you.

As for the text output, having it in in a separate file would provide more flexibility for folks to set up their web pages.  For instance, I have in mind to have the plain text first, then a screen capture of the graph and lastly the full data.

Possibility of a graph.gif being generated automatically for us?

I'm looking forward to the release and am willing to help test just as soon as it's time.  Thanks for all your hard work.

- Jim

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Offline jmcmurry

  • Jim McMurry
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  • Mauston, WI, USA
    • Juneau County Weather
Re: WxSim Output Analysis
« Reply #7 on: June 27, 2006, 01:50:44 PM »
Tom,

As you're considering the idea of forecast analysis, would it be possible to incorporate NWS forecast data from somewhere like

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?TempBox=1&DewBox=1&ExtraBox=1&WindBox=1&HumidBox=1&SkyBox=1&RainBox=1&ThunderBox=1&PoPBox=1&Submit=Submit&FcstType=digital&textField1=43.8&textField2=-90.1&site=arx

which would allow comparison with them as well? 

- Jim

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