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Offline jayman228

  • Posts: 471
  • Portales, NM
    • Portales, NM Weather
Re: Forcast
« Reply #15 on: February 16, 2006, 11:06:13 AM »
Hello Everyone,

I haven't bragged about WXSim's software for a while now...so its time for me to start bragging again..:-)

Before I do though, my ONLY suggest that I want to throw at Tom is to WORK WITH BRIAN about adding custom tags to WD with your forecast data. Thats the ONLY thing I would really love to see automated...If we get that then it would save me a lot of copy and pasting and all Id have to do is take the 5-10 minutes to actually run the forecast on a given day and WD could do the rest for me. Maybe make seperate files for each day (day1.txt, day2.txt,etc) and have the forecast post in there and then have Brian add some kind of custom code that WD would read whats in that file and use that text or whatnot. I'm not sure how you both program but I'm just throwing my only idea to you guys right now :-)

Anyways now to brag about the software...LOL  I ran a forcecast last night with WXSim and check out the predictions (The full forecast is at http://www.hobartweather.net/forecast.html) Forecast Feb 15-17.

Feb 16 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          Thursday                                             
TIME      WEATHER        AIR   DEW   WET   WCF   HT.I W.DIR W.SP %RH  INT  TOT  SN.C THK
12:00a DNS.OVCS            32.6  30.7  31.8  25.4  32.6  NE     8   93 0.00 0.06  0.0  5423   
12:30a DNS.OVCS            32.2  30.4  31.5  25.0  32.2  NE     8   93 0.00 0.06  0.0  5426   
 1:00a DNS.OVCS            31.9  30.1  31.2  24.6  31.9  NE     8   93 0.00 0.06  0.0  5430   
 1:30a CLOUDY   SLT/FRZ.R  31.6  29.9  30.9  24.2  31.6  NE     8   93 0.03 0.07  0.0  5433   
 2:00a DNS.OVCS            31.2  29.7  30.6  23.7  31.2  NE     8   94 0.00 0.08  0.0  5436   
 2:30a DNS.OVCS            30.9  29.4  30.3  23.4  30.9  NE     8   94 0.00 0.08  0.0  5439   
 3:00a DNS.OVCS            30.6  29.1  30.0  23.0  30.6  NE     8   94 0.00 0.08  0.0  5442   
 3:30a DNS.OVCS            30.3  28.7  29.7  22.7  30.3  NE     8   94 0.00 0.08  0.0  5445   
 4:00a DNS.OVCS            30.0  28.4  29.4  22.3  30.0  NE     8   94 0.00 0.08  0.0  5447 

Below is parts of the Daily login times from WD. 

Time Temperature  Humidity  Dewpoint 
00:20       34.2      83       29.5     
00:30       35.1      94       33.5     
00:40       34.9      94       33.3     
00:50       34.9      94       33.3     
01:00       34.7      94       33.2     
01:10       34.7      94       33.2       
01:19       34.5      95       33.2     
01:29       34.5      95       33.2     
01:38       34.5      95       33.2     
01:48       34.5      95       33.2     
01:58       34.2      95       32.9     
02:08       34.2      95       32.9     
02:17       34.2      95       32.9     
02:25       34.2      95       32.9     
02:34       34.2      95       32.9       
02:43       34.2      95       32.9     
02:52       34.2      95       32.9     
03:03       34.2      95       32.9     
03:10       34.2      95       32.9     
03:19       34.2      95       32.9     
03:28       34.2      95       32.9     
03:38       34.2      95       32.9     
03:48       34.2      95       32.9     
03:57       34.2      95       32.9     
04:07       34.2      95       32.9     

WXSim was able to predict the temp, humidity, and dew point within -/+ 5 degrees or percentage for this morning (on the 16). In fact I was at work yesterday (on the 15th) and my coworker said "Its Raining outside" , i said "I know, the forecast predicted it..." so I checked the actual temp from my website and the actual "Condition" said  "7:30p DNS.OVCS SNOW/RAIN  37.9" The actual temp was like 35.6 or so (estimate from my log file). He hit me and said "See your in the wrong field, go be a weather man." LOL!

Anyways....just giving my props to Tom and to throw the suggestion at him (and Brian). I'm sure Tom loves hearing when forecasts come out good! heh heh

-Jason
-Jason
Portales, NM Weather
http://www.portalesweather.net

Offline niko

  • syzygy
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  • Northern California, U.S.A.
Re: Forcast
« Reply #16 on: February 16, 2006, 03:36:08 PM »
If the forecast is in a text file or files you could use the "include a file" custom tags to get it on a webpage. See http://www.weather-watch.com/smf/index.php/topic,12368.0.html
« Last Edit: February 16, 2006, 03:38:34 PM by nikoshepherd™ »

Offline NorCal Dan

  • Dan - KJ6RGX
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  • Ocean Park, WA.
    • Traveling RV Weather
Re: Forcast
« Reply #17 on: February 16, 2006, 03:42:40 PM »
Having looked at the WXSim site and a few of the messages posted here, it is obvious that what I call a forecast and what WXSim produces are two different things.  All those codes and numbers...yuck. 

I would prefer a simple icon/text forecast similar to what I get now from the NWS as seen here

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/printable_forecast.php?wfo=sto&zone=caz016&fire=caz216&county=cac115&dgtl=&lat=39.49000&lon=-121.5500


Offline jayman228

  • Posts: 471
  • Portales, NM
    • Portales, NM Weather
Re: Forcast
« Reply #18 on: February 16, 2006, 07:26:33 PM »
Having looked at the WXSim site and a few of the messages posted here, it is obvious that what I call a forecast and what WXSim produces are two different things.  All those codes and numbers...yuck. 

I would prefer a simple icon/text forecast similar to what I get now from the NWS as seen here

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/printable_forecast.php?wfo=sto&zone=caz016&fire=caz216&county=cac115&dgtl=&lat=39.49000&lon=-121.5500

I just wanted to post a message that a couple months ago I suggested to Tom that he adds a feature to where it will produce a sentence forecast version such as what NWS does. (ie: Monday: Rain with the high in the upper 60. Monday Night: Lows in the lower 30's with west winds, etc)

He said he had others request this and he will consider implimenting it, just no eta at this time. I don't want to speak for Tom since I don't know if he's really doing this or not but thats what he told me in his reply to my suggestion.

I personally would love to use a sentence base forecast then the hourly one. The hourly one would be perfect on a seperate website (ie: file by itself). As far as the sentence base i'd love to use this on my flyer and get rid of the NWS forecast and put WXSim's forecast up vs the NWS. I'd make WXSim's forecast the main forecast that users see when they click forecast but I'd add a "Click here for NWS Forecast" in case users want to view that.

Sorry if im not making sense, Im just waking up and about to leave for work. yay....So im a litte out of out it and running low on surgar :-)
-Jason
Portales, NM Weather
http://www.portalesweather.net

Offline Stuntman

  • Posts: 783
  • Hemet, California USA
    • Hemet Weather
Re: Forcast
« Reply #19 on: February 16, 2006, 07:43:02 PM »
I just wanted to post a message that a couple months ago I suggested to Tom that he adds a feature to where it will produce a sentence forecast version such as what NWS does. (ie: Monday: Rain with the high in the upper 60. Monday Night: Lows in the lower 30's with west winds, etc)

He said he had others request this and he will consider implimenting it, just no eta at this time. I don't want to speak for Tom since I don't know if he's really doing this or not but thats what he told me in his reply to my suggestion.

I personally would love to use a sentence base forecast then the hourly one. The hourly one would be perfect on a seperate website (ie: file by itself). As far as the sentence base i'd love to use this on my flyer and get rid of the NWS forecast and put WXSim's forecast up vs the NWS. I'd make WXSim's forecast the main forecast that users see when they click forecast but I'd add a "Click here for NWS Forecast" in case users want to view that.

Sorry if im not making sense, Im just waking up and about to leave for work. yay....So im a litte out of out it and running low on surgar :-)
Wouldn't it be rather trivial for a code junkie to parse the data to produce such a thing?  Find the high value and time, find the low value and time.. and look for any precipitation and amounts..  then dump that into a tag or some other file format for displaying..  Could WD perhaps do this with the .csv forecast file WXSIM produces?  Brian is amazing at parsing, perhaps he could create a custom page that looks for a current WXSIM forecast file and converts it into html...


Offline hankster

  • Posts: 1,284
  • North Fort Myers FL
    • North Fort Myers Weather
Re: Forcast
« Reply #20 on: February 28, 2006, 08:51:13 PM »
Not being able to do this is about the only thing preventing me from buying WxSim. It would be fun to play with but all of the cutting and pasting would take a lot of the "fun" out of it.

Offline chucl1932

  • Posts: 410
  • Nampa, Idaho
Re: Forcast
« Reply #21 on: February 28, 2006, 10:41:58 PM »
Not being able to do this is about the only thing preventing me from buying WxSim. It would be fun to play with but all of the cutting and pasting would take a lot of the "fun" out of it.

I may be confused at what you are saying. If you do get wxsimm then also get wxmate. It downloads every thing you need except,ready. IT does get the info from WD and uses in in your forcast.
Chuck

Offline NorCal Dan

  • Dan - KJ6RGX
  • Posts: 10,501
  • Davis Vue/Win10
  • Ocean Park, WA.
    • Traveling RV Weather
Re: Forcast
« Reply #22 on: February 28, 2006, 10:42:27 PM »
Agreed.  The best solution I have read so far involves having WD read an file output from WxSim and creating a simple icon based forecast from that for the next 3, 5, or 7 days.  If it could be done and made totally automated I would be on board as well.  Hopefully the guys are working something out...

Offline Stuntman

  • Posts: 783
  • Hemet, California USA
    • Hemet Weather
Re: Forcast
« Reply #23 on: February 28, 2006, 10:47:43 PM »
Agreed.  The best solution I have read so far involves having WD read an file output from WxSim and creating a simple icon based forecast from that for the next 3, 5, or 7 days.  If it could be done and made totally automated I would be on board as well.  Hopefully the guys are working something out...
I think we have convinced Tom to work on an automated version. He is such a fanatic about getting it right I understand his reluctance to automate.  I have wxsim, and with the companion wxsimate it really does only take about 10 minutes max to get a good forecast. Due to the availability and reliability of data I've not seen very precise forecasts past 3 days, but I can tell you he is VERY GOOD at 3 days and under.. down to the minute good in some cases!  WXSIM put rainfall yesterday at about 1:30pm.. rain began at 1:22pm.. how is that for close?

But to be honest I do almost the exact same thing each time I run WXSIM with WXSIMATE, so automating it shouldn't be a problem for short range forecasts.  Getting READY and MAPS/RUC-2 data has to be done by hand, but we can add that in optionally once or twice a day to tweak the forecasts.  I'd like to see it so that WD can call wxsim to update the forecast every hour or two automatically.. it can look for the existance of any READY/MAPS/RUC-2 data and use it if it is there, and skip it if not...

It may happen.. it may happen faster if we can convince Tom that he'd sell more copies of WXSIM if it did get done!  It's a great product and deserves to be used!


Offline NorCal Dan

  • Dan - KJ6RGX
  • Posts: 10,501
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  • Ocean Park, WA.
    • Traveling RV Weather
Re: Forcast
« Reply #24 on: February 28, 2006, 11:07:07 PM »
It may happen.. it may happen faster if we can convince Tom that he'd sell more copies of WXSIM if it did get done!  It's a great product and deserves to be used!

Hopefully we have convinced him already  :wink:

Offline daveq

  • Posts: 3,098
  • Hollywood, MD
    • Hollywood - St. Mary's County, Maryland
Re: Forcast
« Reply #25 on: February 28, 2006, 11:13:54 PM »
It may happen.. it may happen faster if we can convince Tom that he'd sell more copies of WXSIM if it did get done!  It's a great product and deserves to be used!
I'd be very interested in a more automated version.

--Dave

Offline weatheroz

  • Brendan
  • Posts: 1,214
  • Jimboomba, Queensland, Australia
    • Jimboomba Weather
Re: Forecast
« Reply #26 on: March 01, 2006, 07:52:11 AM »

But to be honest I do almost the exact same thing each time I run WXSIM with WXSIMATE, so automating it shouldn't be a problem for short range forecasts.  Getting READY and MAPS/RUC-2 data has to be done by


Anyone using this in the southern hemisphere, in particular Australia successfully ?

It sure sounds interesting. :)

Offline NorCal Dan

  • Dan - KJ6RGX
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  • Ocean Park, WA.
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Re: Forcast
« Reply #27 on: March 03, 2006, 07:45:19 PM »
I may be confused at what you are saying. If you do get wxsimm then also get wxmate. It downloads every thing you need except,ready. IT does get the info from WD and uses in in your forcast.

Chuck,

What I am looking for is a way to have WxSim generate a simple 3 day forecast that is automated and hands free.  Some simple text, ie. saturday partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. a chance of light rain. highs around 53. southeast winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon and then, have WD include the icon with the forecast so I can post it to my website.  From looking at the WxSim site examples it appears to be very complicated.  I have some free time today and I am going to download WxSim and WxMate and have another go at it and see what I come up with for data.

Offline hankster

  • Posts: 1,284
  • North Fort Myers FL
    • North Fort Myers Weather
Re: Forcast
« Reply #28 on: March 03, 2006, 08:19:14 PM »
I would even settle for something like:

Today:
7 am - partly sunny 60 deg. wind SW 7mph
noon - sunny 70 deg. wind S 15mph
6 pm  - sunny 75 deg wind S 10mph
midnight - clear 55 deg. wind calm
low - 55 deg at midnight
high - 77 deg at 5pm

(or whatever times we choose to display)

I know that is not as wordy as Dans suggestion but I could live with the above for now if that would be easier to do while you work on getting a discriptive forcast working properly. Heck, if these items were broken down and WD tags created for each item within a time then we could construct the discriptive part of the text.

Offline Tom Ehrensperger

  • Posts: 2,659
Re: Forcast
« Reply #29 on: March 05, 2006, 02:50:46 AM »
Hi All,

I'm glad to see all this discussion of WXSIM! :-)

To back up what a couple of others have reported (or at least expressed a wish for), I am indeed trying to create a much more automated option.  Making it an option (with some kind of disclaimer attached) would satisfy my concerns about reduced accuracy when run in that mode.  I think on most days, it makes little difference, but there are other situations that call for some good human decision making with regard to what options to use.

Another thing I'd like to point out is the learning value of actually taking the time to go through the whole (few minutes' worth) process of running WXSIM 'manually'.  I think carefully looking at the data, and how WXSIM uses it (and by running different scenarios with slight variations - or just playing around with 'pretend' weather conditions in other seasons, even some of the other sample locations), can make the user a better forecaster.

Also, I've given considerable thought to the 'plain English' forecast output.  I think I can do it.  The challenges are mainly related to wording of changing conditions, like, under what circustances to say "increasing cloudiness tonight" instead of just "partly cloudy tonight".

I've done actual work on the automating part, and have it partially working.  I need to make improvements (like maybe even a timer to have the program start a forecast at prescribed times).  I'm very interested in doing this, but quickly get swamped.  In between teaching high school full time, doing WXSIM customizations, and of course spending time with my wife and two kids, there's not as much left for program development as I'd like.  I am plugging away, though as time allows.

Thanks!

Tom