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Author Topic: "10 Year" storm for California  (Read 4014 times)

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Offline niko

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Re: "10 Year" storm for California
« Reply #75 on: February 14, 2017, 07:57:37 PM »
I think the erosion problem with the emergency spillway is actually at the other end, nearest the normal spillway.

Agreed. They've been dumping a lot of rock+slurry at the normal spillway end. But there are some holes that appear to be very deep in various places. Hopefully they can take the water level low enough that the coming storm won't be an issue.

I can't find the quote now but a water & power guy said that a small flow of water can cause more erosion than a really gully washer  :-k

Offline looney2ns

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Re: "10 Year" storm for California
« Reply #76 on: February 15, 2017, 03:58:23 PM »
Busy armchair engineer here, 100% guaranteed pure speculation on my part  :lol:

According to this article the exact issue came up 12 years ago when the dam was re-licensed. When the various officials have been asked on TV about this 2005 report it's been like watching the three monkeys, no one admits to having seen it.

Looking at the pictures, and diagrams, and the DWR's panic about erosion it appears to me that the emergency spillway wall doesn't have anything like the kind of foundation that I would expect for a "mini-dam".

They fixed some cracks in that area (apparently with some kind of grout/caulk) a few years ago, and inspected it remotely a couple of years ago. Talking to my neighbor this morning we agreed that neither of us had seen any sign of rebar in the concrete floor of the spillway. With broken concrete like this wouldn't you expect to see the rebar?

Remotely?  8O 8O

Heck yeah, there would be rebar all over the place, especially since the rebar should either be tied or welded together at each junction.

I'm no dam expert, ha, but I've seen a few in my day, and I would expect a wider spillway on such a large lake.

Wonder if the concrete was even tested as it was poured back then, doubtful. Then did someone decide to add more water to the mix as it was being poured, and weakened it. Ugh, Government at work always give me heartburn.


Offline niko

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Re: "10 Year" storm for California
« Reply #77 on: February 17, 2017, 02:54:35 AM »
 Big rain coming. Atmospheric river forecast for Monday, targeted right at the Oroville dam area (yellow arrow).


Offline looney2ns

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Re: "10 Year" storm for California
« Reply #78 on: February 17, 2017, 04:46:51 PM »
Big rain coming. Atmospheric river forecast for Monday, targeted right at the Oroville dam area (yellow arrow).



 8O 8O 8O

Offline Harry

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Re: "10 Year" storm for California
« Reply #79 on: February 17, 2017, 09:24:02 PM »
Alltime low baro today: 29.14 in (986.8 mb) and still falling. No wonder it was so windy.  A lot of trees and powerlines down throughout the CWA.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 09:29:34 PM by Harry »

Offline niko

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Re: "10 Year" storm for California
« Reply #80 on: February 17, 2017, 09:33:23 PM »
Southwest is cancelling flights in the L.A. area and the NWS has suggested taking the afternoon off so they are getting nervous down south.

Offline Harry

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Re: "10 Year" storm for California
« Reply #81 on: February 17, 2017, 10:21:46 PM »
Yup, looks like it's SoCal's turn in the barrel.  BTW, the following link also shows video of them dumping a lot of rock below the emergency spillway at Oroville Dam.

Quote
Reports: Evacuations ordered in Southern California as major storm brings flood threat

One of the biggest storms in years is bombarding Southern California with heavy rain and gusty winds and will continue to slam the region into Saturday.

The worst conditions are expected from Los Angeles through Santa Barbara, California with heavy rain causing mudslides and significant travel delays. Evacuation orders have already been issued for some communities due to the high threat of mudslides.

Those traveling around Los Angeles for the Friday evening commute will likely face significant travel delays due to the rain. Some roads will potentially become impassable because of flooding.

Most flights out of John Wayne Airport in Orange County have been canceled today, including all Southwest and American flights.

Due to heavy rain and wind, there is a Traffic Management Program in effect for traffic arriving at Los Angeles International Airpot (LAX). According to www.faa.gov, some arriving flights are being delayed an average of 1 hour and 17 minutes.

There have been more than 900 flight delays and 400 flight cancellations at airports across California today, according to FlightStats.


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/reports-evacuations-ordered-in-southern-california-as-major-storm-brings-flood-threat/70000891
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 10:29:03 PM by Harry »

Offline Harry

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Re: "10 Year" storm for California
« Reply #82 on: February 17, 2017, 11:06:17 PM »
LA rain is now trending on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hashtag/LARain?src=tren&data_id=tweet%3A832717273672462336

Flash flood warnings are in effect for Ventura, Los Angeles, Kern, and Santa Barbara counties.

Flight delays are now up to 129 minutes at LAX due to wind.

Offline Harry

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Re: "10 Year" storm for California
« Reply #83 on: February 17, 2017, 11:26:44 PM »
Egads!  Just saw this on NWS Sacramento Twitter feed:

Quote
Today's storm is impacting all of #California. But the next one will be bigger and more impactful for #NorCal early next week #CAStorm #cawx

https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento

Offline niko

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Re: "10 Year" storm for California
« Reply #84 on: February 17, 2017, 11:32:56 PM »
Yeah, Monday will be our day  8O

Offline Harry

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Re: "10 Year" storm for California
« Reply #85 on: February 17, 2017, 11:55:59 PM »
We'll be getting some of that down here too.  Forecast for Monday:

Washington's Birthday
 Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 62. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Offline Harry

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Re: "10 Year" storm for California
« Reply #86 on: February 18, 2017, 02:58:38 AM »
Over 60,000 people without power in SoCal.

Offline Harry

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Re: "10 Year" storm for California
« Reply #87 on: February 18, 2017, 09:35:11 PM »
Looks like we are going to get more than our fair share from this next storm.  Flood watches have been posted that includes my area as well.

Quote
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...
The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a
 
* Flood Watch for a portion of western California...including
the following areas...Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes
National Seashore...East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range...East
Bay Interior Valleys...Mountains Of San Benito County And
Interior Monterey County Including Pinnacles National Park...
North Bay Interior Valleys...North Bay Mountains...Northern
Monterey Bay...Northern Salinas Valley/Hollister Valley and
Carmel Valley...San Francisco...San Francisco Bay Shoreline...
San Francisco Peninsula Coast...Santa Clara Valley Including
San Jose...Santa Cruz Mountains...Santa Lucia Mountains and
Los Padres National Forest...Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur
Coast and Southern Salinas Valley/Arroyo Seco and Lake San
Antonio.

* Impacts include enhanced runoff/flooding in low lying areas and
waterway, rising water levels/flooding in areal streams, creeks
and rivers, increased risk of mudslides in steep terrain, downed
trees and power lines, and damaged or washed out roadways.

Quote
An atmospheric river storm pattern will return to Bay Area beginning Sunday morning and extending through the early week. Rainfall from this system will be most intense Sunday night into Monday, with rain accumulation as high as 4-6 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains and other portions of the Coast Range generally north of the Monterey Bay. Widespread flooding and additional mudslides are likely, given recent rains and enhanced seasonal soil moisture and creek levels. High winds are likely, but will not reach velocities as high as Friday night's system.

Offline niko

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Re: "10 Year" storm for California
« Reply #88 on: February 18, 2017, 09:40:20 PM »
Just saw that Maxwell (N of Sacramento on 5) is flooded, it hasn't rained much up this way today.

http://www.krcrtv.com/news/local/northstate/maxwell-heavily-flooded-evacuation-centers-opened-in-williams/342132619

Offline Harry

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Re: "10 Year" storm for California
« Reply #89 on: February 18, 2017, 09:57:18 PM »
Wow, I hadn't heard about that one.  The flooding is covering such a large area.  And that's going to continue to be a problem as long as it keeps raining.  The soil is so saturated that any more rain we get, is only going to cause more flooding and mud/land slides.

 

cumulus