"10 Year" storm for California - Spillway Collapse Update

Here we go again. You can stop the rain dances now.

[size=83]Widespread flooding to blast California with latest barrage of storms

Three storms will hit California and the southwestern United States into early next week with travel disruptions from flooding and mountain snow.

While the rain will not come at once, each storm will be packed with moisture and will lead to travel difficulties for motorists and potential delays for airline passengers.
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http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/californians-brace-for-more-heavy-rain-flooding-and-mountain-snow/70000597

Yup, #1 has arrived here, >30 mph gusts & driving rain now.

0.57in rain and 25mph gust here now for #1. #3 storm on Sunday expected to be the biggest of this series.

We’ve had 12 days of rain in January for 10.14in so far. That makes it 147% of ‘normal’ for this time. If it didn’t rain any more this water year, we’d end up at 78% overall, but there’s more to come :slight_smile:

Only 7.8" for Jan so far but 26.82" ytd. We’ve had 4 consistently rainy months starting with 7.4" in October and that’s quite unusual.

Storm #2 of 3 here now. The frogs are singing :slight_smile:

#2 came barreling through here around 2:00 am. The baro bottomed out at 29.30" at around 6:30 am but, it looks like the low has stalled or just taking it’s sweet time moving off because as of 2:23 pm the baro is sitting at 29.32". Anyway, it looks like #3 is going to be a real barn burner, flash flood watches and high wind watches have been posted already.

From the latest AFD:

[size=83]The next system in this series remains on track to impact the area from late Saturday into Sunday morning. This system appears to have a deeper moisture tap with PWAT values forecast to range between 1 to 1.25 inches. Given this, expecting rainfall amounts to be greater than the previous two systems which will likely lead to a greater threat for flooding issues. Additional rainfall amounts from Saturday into Sunday will range from 0.75 to 1.25 inches in most urban areas and upwards of 2 inches in the North Bay Valleys. Meanwhile, the coastal ranges and North Bay Mountains will likely see 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts upwards of 6 inches.[/size]
[size=83]Event: Flash Flood Watch Alert: ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST...

.THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF STRONG STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL
AS IN LOCAL URBAN AREAS.

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A

  • FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN CALIFORNIA…
    INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…COASTAL NORTH BAY INCLUDING
    POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE…EAST BAY HILLS AND THE DIABLO
    RANGE…EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS…MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO
    COUNTY AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING PINNACLES
    NATIONAL MONUMENT…NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS…NORTH BAY
    MOUNTAINS…NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY…NORTHERN SALINAS
    VALLEY/HOLLISTER VALLEY AND CARMEL VALLEY…SAN FRANCISCO…
    SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE…SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST…
    SANTA CLARA VALLEY INCLUDING SAN JOSE…SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS…
    SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST…
    SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST AND SOUTHERN SALINAS
    VALLEY/ARROYO SECO AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO.
    [/size]
[size=83]Event: High Wind Watch Alert: ...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR
THE COAST…HOWEVER STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DISTRICT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

…HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING…

Target Area:
East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range
East Bay Interior Valleys
Mountains Of San Benito County And Interior Monterey County Including Pinnacles National Monument
Northern Monterey Bay
Northern Salinas Valley, Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley
San Francisco
San Francisco Bay Shoreline
San Francisco Peninsula Coast
Santa Clara Valley Including San Jose
Santa Cruz Mountains
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast
Southern Salinas Valley, Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio
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Storm #2 rolled in early morning and had some mid-afternoon surprises (a couple of thunderclaps).

For the 1+2 storms, we’ve had 3.00 in. For January, an astonishing 12.56 in so far, and 19.76 in since the season started in October. 14 of 20 days with rain in January. That puts us at 168% of ‘normal’ for this time of year, and if we get no more rain until September, we’d finish the water year at 89% of ‘normal’.

A very wet season (which is MOST welcome).

The winds of #3 are here now, not much rain yet but it’ll be here soon enough.

Looking at the PG&E outage map earlier it looked like you guys were having fun down there…

Not much to report here yet except for about a 1/4 inch of rain so far. No outages here. All of our utilities are underground. The fun is supposed to start around 10:00 pm. I’m ready, I think.

Our big rain came from 3-6am this morning. 1.21in since midnight. 4.64in for the storm(s). January now has 14.19in (which is over 1/2 our usual water year rainfall of 21.43in) – we’re at 182% of YTD normal, and if it doesn’t rain until Oct 1st, we’d finish the water year at 96% of ‘normal’. Wow!

Fortunately, not much of high winds in our neighborhood 27.6 mph 2:13am was the gust and 33.0mph on Jan 7, so power is still on :slight_smile: All our utilities are aerial here, but it’s usually some idiot hitting a power pole that takes us off for a while. PG&E keeps the trees well trimmed in the neighborhood.

Highest gust here today was 32 mph, rain .39 inches with more coming this afternoon.

A little statewide update here. Highlights: 7,000 lost power around Sacramento, evacuations in Santa Clarita due to risk of debris flow.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/reports-evacuations-ordered-as-strong-storm-pounds-california/70000640

Just saw this 8O

I wonder how the homes on the beach north of there are doing?

34 foot swells in Monterey Bay

Wow, that’s amazing. I wonder about those homes on the beach too as well as a few restaurants around there. It could get exciting around here this afternoon.

[size=83]Mesoscale Discussion 0122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Areas affected…Portions of coastal central CA eastward toward
parts of the Central Valley of CA

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 222143Z - 222345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent

SUMMARY…A few strong thunderstorms may affect the area through the
afternoon and into the evening hours. Watch issuance is not
anticipated.[/size]

Too much water for a change so they have to let some out. Flooded an RV park downstream :roll:

Here it comes again! This is our usual big storm convergence line, in its usual location. We’ve only had 0.14" here, but there’s flooding a few miles away.

We are currently under a Flood Advisory here. Looks to be another wet week. A lot of reports of minor flooding and rock/mud slides already.

California Storm Reports
http://ucweather.org/iemstmrptca.php

A lot of Flash Flood Warnings today. One of them is for a creek not too far from me and more rain on the way.

Flash Flood Warning

  • Issued Feb 07 at 1:49PM PST until Feb 07 at 2:45PM PST by NWS
    Fresno; Madera; Mariposa; Merced; Tulare; Tuolumne

Flash Flood Warning

  • Issued Feb 07 at 11:59AM PST until Feb 07 at 4:00PM PST by NWS
    Monterey

Flash Flood Warning

  • Issued Feb 07 at 10:22AM PST until Feb 07 at 6:00PM PST by NWS
    San Benito; Santa Clara

Flash Flood Warning

  • Issued Feb 07 at 10:20AM PST until Feb 07 at 3:30PM PST by NWS
    Santa Cruz

Flash Flood Warning

  • Issued Feb 07 at 9:55AM PST until Feb 07 at 4:00PM PST by NWS
    Santa Clara

Flash Flood Warning

  • Issued Feb 07 at 9:33AM PST until Feb 07 at 5:30PM PST by NWS
    Alameda

Good collection of pictures here in the Daily Mail of the Oroville Dam spillway collapse.

Wow! 8O

Oh dear :frowning: The Oroville Dam situation just got a heck of a lot worse. They backed off the amount of water going down the main (damaged) spillway, which allowed the water to rise and flow over the auxilliary spillway. That’s really just a low point in the dam, it’s the wider section towards bottom of the picture (page updated :roll:) in this article. Now that’s structure is failing too so they pushed a lot more water (100,000 cfs) down the main spillway, but it’s not enough and "they