Here we go again. You can stop the rain dances now.
[size=83]Widespread flooding to blast California with latest barrage of storms
Three storms will hit California and the southwestern United States into early next week with travel disruptions from flooding and mountain snow.
While the rain will not come at once, each storm will be packed with moisture and will lead to travel difficulties for motorists and potential delays for airline passengers.
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0.57in rain and 25mph gust here now for #1. #3 storm on Sunday expected to be the biggest of this series.
We’ve had 12 days of rain in January for 10.14in so far. That makes it 147% of ‘normal’ for this time. If it didn’t rain any more this water year, we’d end up at 78% overall, but there’s more to come
#2 came barreling through here around 2:00 am. The baro bottomed out at 29.30" at around 6:30 am but, it looks like the low has stalled or just taking it’s sweet time moving off because as of 2:23 pm the baro is sitting at 29.32". Anyway, it looks like #3 is going to be a real barn burner, flash flood watches and high wind watches have been posted already.
From the latest AFD:
[size=83]The next system in this series remains on track to impact the
area from late Saturday into Sunday morning. This system appears
to have a deeper moisture tap with PWAT values forecast to range
between 1 to 1.25 inches. Given this, expecting rainfall amounts
to be greater than the previous two systems which will likely
lead to a greater threat for flooding issues. Additional rainfall
amounts from Saturday into Sunday will range from 0.75 to 1.25
inches in most urban areas and upwards of 2 inches in the North
Bay Valleys. Meanwhile, the coastal ranges and North Bay Mountains
will likely see 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts upwards of 6
inches.[/size]
[size=83]Event: Flash Flood Watch
Alert: ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST...
.THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF STRONG STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL
AS IN LOCAL URBAN AREAS.
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN CALIFORNIA…
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…COASTAL NORTH BAY INCLUDING
POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE…EAST BAY HILLS AND THE DIABLO
RANGE…EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS…MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO
COUNTY AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING PINNACLES
NATIONAL MONUMENT…NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS…NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS…NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY…NORTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY/HOLLISTER VALLEY AND CARMEL VALLEY…SAN FRANCISCO…
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE…SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST…
SANTA CLARA VALLEY INCLUDING SAN JOSE…SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS…
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST…
SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST AND SOUTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY/ARROYO SECO AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO.
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[size=83]Event: High Wind Watch
Alert: ...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
.THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR
THE COAST…HOWEVER STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DISTRICT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
…HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING…
Target Area:
East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range
East Bay Interior Valleys
Mountains Of San Benito County And Interior Monterey County Including Pinnacles National Monument
Northern Monterey Bay
Northern Salinas Valley, Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley
San Francisco
San Francisco Bay Shoreline
San Francisco Peninsula Coast
Santa Clara Valley Including San Jose
Santa Cruz Mountains
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast
Southern Salinas Valley, Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio
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Storm #2 rolled in early morning and had some mid-afternoon surprises (a couple of thunderclaps).
For the 1+2 storms, we’ve had 3.00 in. For January, an astonishing 12.56 in so far, and 19.76 in since the season started in October. 14 of 20 days with rain in January. That puts us at 168% of ‘normal’ for this time of year, and if we get no more rain until September, we’d finish the water year at 89% of ‘normal’.
Not much to report here yet except for about a 1/4 inch of rain so far. No outages here. All of our utilities are underground. The fun is supposed to start around 10:00 pm. I’m ready, I think.
Our big rain came from 3-6am this morning. 1.21in since midnight. 4.64in for the storm(s). January now has 14.19in (which is over 1/2 our usual water year rainfall of 21.43in) – we’re at 182% of YTD normal, and if it doesn’t rain until Oct 1st, we’d finish the water year at 96% of ‘normal’. Wow!
Fortunately, not much of high winds in our neighborhood 27.6 mph 2:13am was the gust and 33.0mph on Jan 7, so power is still on All our utilities are aerial here, but it’s usually some idiot hitting a power pole that takes us off for a while. PG&E keeps the trees well trimmed in the neighborhood.
Wow, that’s amazing. I wonder about those homes on the beach too as well as a few restaurants around there. It could get exciting around here this afternoon.
[size=83]Mesoscale Discussion 0122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017
Areas affected…Portions of coastal central CA eastward toward
parts of the Central Valley of CA
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 222143Z - 222345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…A few strong thunderstorms may affect the area through the
afternoon and into the evening hours. Watch issuance is not
anticipated.[/size]
Here it comes again! This is our usual big storm convergence line, in its usual location. We’ve only had 0.14" here, but there’s flooding a few miles away.
Oh dear The Oroville Dam situation just got a heck of a lot worse. They backed off the amount of water going down the main (damaged) spillway, which allowed the water to rise and flow over the auxilliary spillway. That’s really just a low point in the dam, it’s the wider section towards bottom of the picture (page updated :roll:) in this article. Now that’s structure is failing too so they pushed a lot more water (100,000 cfs) down the main spillway, but it’s not enough and "they