Best GFS model run?

Hello,

I would like to ask for your opinion… What is the best run out of all 4 GFS runs? Has anyone compared how sucessfull is each run (00,06,12,18Z)?
I would like to set 1 maybe 2 main runs for WXSIM.

Thank you for your opinions.

EmsiWx

I run WxSim every 2 hours from 4AM until 10PM. Looking back at the last 100 days of runs, I get my best results for forecasting the HIGH on my 8PM run (uses 00Z GFS) and forecasting the LOW on my 10AM run (uses 12Z GFS).

Steve

May depend on your location.

Slovakia

While I don’t have personal, direct evidence, I have read that the 00Z and 12Z runs are more accurate than the 06Z and 18Z runs, probably because there’s more real data (including upper air soundings) going into the 00Z and 12Z. I’m not aware of significant differences between 00Z and 12Z. This probably holds true for Slovakia and just about anywhere else.

Note that any increase in accuracy of, say 00Z over 06Z might be compensated for in short term forecasts, just by being more up to date, so I’ve never really recommended NOT using 06 or 18Z. It’s hard to say whether or not they represenet any real improvement over their 6-hour-earlier counterparts.

Tom