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Author Topic: Mystic Met Office abandons long range forecasts  (Read 1148 times)

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Offline TNETWeather

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Mystic Met Office abandons long range forecasts
« on: March 08, 2010, 03:29:19 AM »

Seems they have quit long term forecasts....

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/03/05/mystic_met/

Apparently, they predicted "A mild winter was then given a high probability" only for the UK to suffer its coldest winter for 30 years.

All you need is Time, Aptitude and Desire ... and you can build just about anything...

Offline broadstairs

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Re: Mystic Met Office abandons long range forecasts
« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2010, 06:34:05 AM »
The UKMO has taken a lot of stick this year for bad forecasting, but then it's a UK pastime to berate them anyway. It's quite surprising in my view but a large number of the population think weather forecasting is an exact science and just dont understand that Mother Nature does not follow rules - at least if it does we dont know them yet...

Stuart

Offline prodata

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Re: Mystic Met Office abandons long range forecasts
« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2010, 06:56:24 AM »
Seems they have quit long term forecasts....

This is almost certainly a bad piece of online journalism. I doubt _very_ much that the UKMO have abandoned generating LR forecasts. What they will likely have announced is reversion to the previous practice (from a few years back) of using it internally for development/verification purposes but not publicising its existence externally at all. So all that they may have abandoned is likely to be release of the forecast to the media.

For any non-UK readers, the problem has been a combination of the UKMO's bright idea of allowing their PR department to tart up the vanilla probabilistic forecast with terms such as the infamous 'barbecue summer' with the complete inability of UK media - including in this case the better quality ones - to explain the probability aspects of forecasting. As a result, when last summer turned out not to be a bumper year for barbecues, the UKMO were widely skewered by the media, even though at least some aspects of the underlying probability forecast were broadly correct.
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Offline SandhurstWX

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Re: Mystic Met Office abandons long range forecasts
« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2010, 12:41:10 PM »
This is the link to the Met Office's press release: http://www.metoffice.com/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100305b.html