Forecasting duel in the UK

[niko]

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/11/18/weatheraction_storm_ok/

[Budgie]

Well, let's see now. 

N Sea Storm Surge - Hasn't happened and not likely too, the Low was too far south to have any effect.

Stormy with heavy rain - Well it's November so no prizes for that one.

snow & blizzards in Scot & N/E later - on the very tops of the mountains, maybe, but...... it's November!

N Sea storm & coastal flood warnings East Anglia & Holland 18-19/20th enhanced by new moon 16/17th (Red oval = danger sea level rise) - The worst of the weather over the last week and into this weekend has been & is due on the UK West coast, not the East.

S Ireland & S/W less wet & windy - Southern Ireland and the Southwest of the UK have had the worst of the weather and they are forecast to get winds upto 100 mph this weekend, along with all the rain.

There's currently a warning in force for Cumbria and Southwest Scotland for heavy rain in the next 24 hours that could dump upto 250mm (nearly 10 inches) over high ground and widespread flooding could well follow.

He does keep his name in the Press though. 

[lasatalayas]

Nice one Budgie 

[Nimbus]

Hi.

 I heard that here in the UK 2009 is the 4th warmest global winter since 1986.
Sea Temps again showed a rise of .1 deg since 1996.
Large Sun fish normally found in warmer clime's have been reported in the North Sea?

Is there any evidence that this warming isn't a normal cycle of global patterns?

I remember back as a child when winters where winters, Parts of the north sea freezing on the shore line Rivers froze over & ice inside the bedroom windows. "That was the worse part "
Snow drifting so deep that we made camps inside. Or laying in sheltered areas here in Essex UK some four feet deep. Last one I recall was 1965 Started snowing November 5th. It kept snowing on and off till the February 1966. No School for us that month! "Something to do with the boilers."

Very last of any depth was 1996 10 years without any Major amount's.

The last 3 years have being intresting in the since that the country grinds to a halt because of 2 inches.
Unlike the 60's when most industry & transport etc carried on regardless of the weather.

 

[Weather Display]

the thing is though you remember the worst or the best of the weather,forgetting the boring normal weather in between

[kernowyon]

Sunfish were a regular visitor to the Cornish coast at least during the 1970's. When I went fishing, we saw sunfish virtually every day, sometimes several at a time.

The appearence of sunfish - and other "exotic" species - is cyclic and presumably down to the prevailing currents.

Mark

[Nimbus]

HI.

 You are right Brian. Here in the UK snow is something of a rearer outcome, Yes the years past are something to remember with great fun to be had in the winter snows, spring & summer just had a poetic theme about them I will always be greatfull for the fond memories of my youth

 Ref: Sun fish. It's good to hear they can be seen off the Cornish Coast. But as I recall the Sea's around the South & West Coast of the UK are that much warmer & freer from pollutant's than the North Sea.
As of today it's understood that the North Sea is much more free from pollutant's than say 20 years ago.

As for commercial fishing I understand that the UK Government are now putting aside more areas for preservation as no go areas.

 I live inland to the west of Clacton not to far as the birds fly but close enough to see weather front's and storms building up over the East coast. So as this part of the forum is for oddities of weather predictions. I can report that Birds are a very good source for weather predations.
It's well know here in the UK that Sea Birds will move a mile or two inland to the West if there is a storm front moving in across the North Sea from Mainland Europe from the East or North, North Easterly, or reverse if moving in from a south, South westerly around to North Westerly.
Larger inland Birds tend to migrate away from forthcoming bad weather.

We have very intelligent Birds here in th UK...How about the rest of the World..? Do you too..?

[Weather Display]

yes, sea gulls move inland here too before a storm arrives

[kernowyon]

 I live inland to the west of Clacton not to far as the birds fly but close enough to see weather front's and storms building up over the East coast. So as this part of the forum is for oddities of weather predictions. I can report that Birds are a very good source for weather predations.
It's well know here in the UK that Sea Birds will move a mile or two inland to the West if there is a storm front moving in across the North Sea from Mainland Europe from the East or North, North Easterly, or reverse if moving in from a south, South westerly around to North Westerly.
Larger inland Birds tend to migrate away from forthcoming bad weather.

We have very intelligent Birds here in th UK...How about the rest of the World..? Do you too..?

The same here    I live about 4 miles as the bird flies from the North Coast town of Newquay and the seagulls fly inland when bad weather approaches. 
You need to be a little careful with birds as forecasting aids though - the seagulls will appear as if by magic when the farmers are ploughing a field or spreading manure

Mark

[Nimbus]

Hi Brian, Mark.

 Well from what I can see at the moment Seagulls are a reasonable aid to forcasting.
Yes I would agree Sea gulls are something of a mystery when it comes to arable farming.
I have also noticed that Sea Gulls that dominate the rubbish tip's are the same when weather is about to change.
Despite there greed for scraps they will move out prior to a storm moving in.
I wonder if there is anyone on this site who could maybe give us more details on there senses.
I read somewhere that many birds are able to sense a minute change in pressure something like 0.02 of an inch?

 Another good forcaster is the Crows & Rooks. These Birds do alter there nesting site's ready for a good summer nest near the top of tree's, if it's going to be a bad summer with windy day's & more precipitation's they do nest lower down in the tree's.

Frog's & Toads are a good forcaster too in that they will spawn early in the spring if summer is going to be cooler than normal..

[arthurhh]

HI.

 snip

We have very intelligent Birds here in th UK...How about the rest of the World..? Do you too..?

We have very intelligent birds they come here for the weather from the UK 

[lasatalayas]

They probably go from Essex.

[Nimbus]

Intresting.

 Thank's for the link Niko.
Not seen that particular report.

 The way I understand a North Sea surge for the South East to happen.

Is there must be Gale force winds blowing down from Iceland & the Norwegian Sea, These winds converge Just South of Viking Banks Western Norway, These winds causing Very high Sea Force 12 or more of North East coast of Orkney & Wick.

These High seas get funnelled down between the Western Side of EU & the UK. High pressure must be dominant to the northern sector & low pressure to the southern sector of the UK.

 This factor if correct will create a tsunami like condition like in 1952 when most of the southern parts of the UK was devastated by the rising sea waters. Much of Holland & the East coast of UK was awash with floods moving inland beyond 5 miles. Mersey Island & most low lying areas vanished in the surge.

Sadly many folk died.